Some Tri Stats...

You know how some people really get into baseball statistics, studying averages of all kinds? I can relate, because I pore over my triathlon results. I usually look at percentiles because it is difficult to compare race times directly, even if they are the same distance class - tri courses vary in difficulty, due to hills, winds, and other factors like the weather or course (mis)measurement. Presumably, these affect everybody and thus percentile comparison is best.

First, I'm a solid middle-to-back of packer. At sprints, I can finish somewhere in the middle. But at olys, I'm near the back. There are many reasons for this, chief among them is the fact sprints draw people that are newer to the sport. You have to start somewhere, and while I have a friend whose first triathlon was a half-ironman (!!), most people opt for a gentler entry point.

My last tri of 2003 was the Kirkland tri, a sprint. At that race, I was 550th out of 1063 in the swim, 639th out of 1060 in the bike, and 480th out of 1057 in the run, for an overall 508th out of 984. A few people drop out as the race progresses, which is why 1063 finished the swim, but only 1060 completed the bike, and 1057 completed the run. Why the big drop to 984 overall? That's because people who are on a relay team are counted in the individual stats, but for the overall results they are placed separately.

At Kirkland last year, percentile-wise (lower is better), I was 51.7% in the swim, 60.3% in the bike, 45.4% in the run, and 51.6% overall. Percentile-wise, running was my strongest and biking was my weakest. I'm a slow swimmer and my explanation for finishing near the median is that many people in sprint tris breast stroke the swim, so the average is skewed by them.

Another view: out of the water I was 550th, by the end of the bike I was 583rd (this placing is listed as another column in the results), and by the end of the run I was 508th. So I gave up some spots on the bike but managed to reel in a few competitors on the run.

Things are a bit different at an olympic tri! At my most recent oly, Apple Capital, I was 114th out of 121 in the swim, 110th out of 120 in the bike, 99th out of 118 in the run, for an overall 97th out of 107.

Percentile-wise, that is 94.2% in the swim, 91.7% in the bike, 83.9% in the run, and 90.7% overall. Obviously, more serious athletes show up at olys! The results are more in line with what I expect: weakest on the swim, strongest on the run ("strongest" is relative of course).

At Apple Capital, I was 114th after the swim, 111th after the bike, and 97th after the run. This is excellent - I caught people and improved my standing the entire time. Of course, the people I caught were my fellow back-of-packers!

I extracted a little more information from the results as well - how far away from the median I was in each discipline. For the swim, the median time was 22:51, for the bike it was 1:12:27, and for the run it was 50:26. I need to improve my swim 23%, my bike 13%, and my run 13% to achieve the median overall times, based on the Apple Capital results. The median overall time was about 2:32, which is about 24 minutes better than I did.

The swim is unrealistic, 23% better will take all off-season of work, perhaps even more than just one year. But the bike and run are tantalizing, 13% better is something I could achieve for next season if I really worked on it. Or at least make a major dent into it.

My next tris are four weeks away, so I have a bit of time to attempt to "improve" this season. To that end, I plan a speed session for running and biking each week. Nothing too brutal, just a workout where I push a bit harder than usual. Normally I don't even bother, as I just work on endurance and train slow and easy. This methodology has prevented me from injuring myself and thus missing the event entirely.